Bangladesh’s exports to the United States could fall by as much as $1.25 billion if the current tariff regime remains unchanged, according to a new study by the Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID). The study, unveiled on 16 September, highlights the challenges facing Bangladesh as global demand slows and trade competition intensifies.
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The findings suggest that overall US imports may decline by up to 14% under the existing tariff structure, with apparel imports shrinking by more than $10 billion. For Bangladesh, this would translate into a 14.3% drop in exports to the US, amounting to $1.25 billion in lost earnings. Around $1.08 billion of this loss would come from the garment sector, the backbone of the country’s export industry.
RAPID Chairman Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, presenting the study at a workshop in Dhaka titled “Implications of US Reciprocal Tariff and LDC Graduation: Concerns and Options for Bangladesh”, said Bangladesh is relatively better positioned than some competitors in terms of tariffs. However, he warned that ongoing stagflation in the US would shrink overall demand, limiting Bangladesh’s ability to expand its market share. “An increase in garment exports to the US market is almost impossible under the current scenario,” he noted.
The study also cautioned that the risks could deepen if a US-India trade deal materialises. Should tariffs on Indian goods be reduced from 50% to Bangladesh’s current level of 20%, Bangladesh’s exports to the US could fall by more than 17%, further squeezing earnings from its largest export market.
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Experts at the workshop stressed the urgency of preparing for these potential shifts by diversifying export products, exploring new markets, and strengthening trade competitiveness. They noted that Bangladesh’s upcoming graduation from Least Developed Country (LDC) status will add further challenges, requiring strategic policy and industry adjustments to sustain growth.